Containment in France
In France, confinement was declared from 12 noon on 16 March. This date marked the closure of all "non-essential" activities, i.e. all shops and industries other than supermarkets, bakeries and medical and paramedical institutions (hospitals, clinics, pharmacies).
The "non-essential" category includes the majority of activities in the tourism sector, as well as businesses of all kinds: banks, real estate, SMEs and very small businesses, factories, and so on. concessions. Some sectors, such as tourism, the automotive industry and employment, have been more intensely affected by containment.
Different consequences depending on the sector
The effects of the virus have been uneven depending on the sector. Hotels and restaurants have reported a loss of revenue of 5 to 6 billion euros, during this period. 15 to 20 % will not reopen in 2020, as this would not be profitable. For the remaining businesses of this type, the reopening is scheduled for 2 June.
Next, the The closure of factories and dealerships has had a lasting impact on the automotive market. On the supply side, it was impossible to produce vehicles, some of whose equipment was imported from China, and dealerships were not accessible and did not receive customers. The fall was of the order of 88.84 % with 20,997 units sold in April 2020.
Teleworking in force
Finally, 16 March marks the start of a long period of teleworking for 70 % employees. Given the company closures, employees whose teleworking is not possible and requires them to be face-to-face have been put on short-time working. This was the case for 11 millionwith each other. The primary objective of this scheme was of course to preserve jobs.
Since 11 May, the announced decontamination date, most companies have been able to resume their activities under strict health guidelines. However, the organisation of the resumption is not reassuring for employees. Although the protocol put in place within companies allows everyone to respect social distancing measures, the greatest source of anxiety is transport to the workplace. Wearing a mask is certainly compulsory, but the distancing measures are difficult, if not impossible, to implement.
What impact does containment have on means of transport?
For some people, going back to work means changing their mode of transport.
The car is the preferred alternative after confinement
In fact, 63% of those questioned intend to travel by car after the confinement. Our study shows that 84% of our panel respondents have little or no confidence in using public transportThis applies regardless of age, place of residence, gender or socio-professional category. However, they will be 15% to use them to go to their place of work, when this is, on average, within a 10km radius.
When the distance to be travelled is more than 10 km, 14% of people who used to take public transport are now switching to the car.
When the journey is longer than 20 km, 71% of French people aged 40 and over have a very high level of confidence in the car as their future mode of transport. The car seems to be the preferred alternative to public transport for avoiding overcrowding. The more kilometres people travel, the more likely they are to use the car, across all age groups.
Motorised two-wheelers also in demand
With regard to the use of motorised two-wheelers, 68.5% have a high level of confidence in using them for journeys of between 10 and 30 km, without any health risk. And 40.2% of people in their twenties are confident in using bicycles for distances of less than 10 km.
Women aged between 20 and 30 have more confidence in motorised two-wheelers than in bicycles. According to our study, women in general prioritise journey time as much as health and safety. Men, on the other hand, prefer to optimise their journey time and pay less attention to the health aspect, according to our study.
Health safety and journey times are the main criteria for choosing a means of transport
- Among the 54% people living in the city, 48 % said they used their cars or motorbikes to get to workregardless of distance. This choice of mobility can be explained by individual preferences. People who live in towns and cities prioritise health safety, then journey time and price, and lastly ecology.
- People living in rural areas accounted for 25.1% of those surveyed. 94% use a car or motorised two-wheeler to get to work. This time, the health safety criterion is as important as the ecological impact, followed by time and finally price.
- Finally, respondents who live in suburban areas (20.8%) follow the same trend, using cars and motorised two-wheelers (85.6%). As with the rural population, the priority is health safety and ecology, then time and finally price.
We have seen the global trends in people's behaviour. We are now going to take a closer look at their implications and the reactions of mobility markets.
Vehicle purchases and sales down sharply due to confinement
Registrations of new passenger cars fell sharply as dealerships and factories closed. Nearly 72% registered compared with last March, or 63,000. April saw a decrease of 88% compared with April 2019, representing the registration of 20,997 vehicles.
On the supply side of the automotive market, for manufacturers and dealers, the impact is unprecedented and is having repercussions on sales. Estimates for the current year are not encouraging. Sales in 2020 are expected to fall by around 20% 30% compared with previous years.
On the demand side, we can deduce that the drop in sales due to the health crisis is the result of a postponement of projects. Among the projects that came to fruition, sales of combustion-powered vehicles fell in favour of hybrid and electric vehicles. In fact, the purchase of diesel and petrol vehicles recorded respective falls of around 70% in the first quarter of 2020. Electric vehicles, on the other hand, managed to cushion the fall with a decrease of 12% of sales.
The company's CEO FinnocarYassine Tazi answered our questions. Finnocar is a company specialising in car financing solutions for professionals. Its founder answered our questions about the impact of the health crisis and the recovery of the business.
"It's hard to say when the recovery will take place, but we hope that the market will pick up quickly, but it's hard to make up for these two months. For a good recovery, there needs to be an upturn in the country's overall activity".
What impact has containment had on loan applications and the car market in general?
I didn't want to talk too much about it, but if we see another wave (and therefore reconfiguration) following the deconfiguration, or massive redundancies in certain sectors, the recovery may turn out to be more complicated than expected! But we remain optimistic here, believing that the recovery will take place little by little! In fact, our visitor statistics show that the recovery began 1/2 week ago.
What impact has containment had on loan applications and the car market in general?
With our vendor partners having closed, we still retained 50% of our leads thanks to the partner sites on which we are present. But customers preferred to wait until the end of containment before finalising their requests... so many of these leads postponed their purchase until decontainment. We're waiting to see how the market reacts over the coming months.
What impact can we expect decontamination to have on car purchases?
It depends on a number of factors, but I think that the second-hand market will pick up fairly quickly with the postponements of recent months. In fact, a number of surveys carried out recently showed that the car still predominates (as a means of protection). The new car market will also depend on the government's stimulus plan. If they announce loud and clear that the recovery plan will be implemented in September, with incentives, the market is likely to freeze until the autumn. No one will want to buy a car now, if they are potentially going to be granted subsidies in a few months' time.
How quickly do you expect sales to pick up? Will the upturn in business be enough to compensate for the downturn caused by the confinement?
It's hard to say. We hope that the market will pick up quickly, but these 2 months are hard to make up. For a proper recovery, the country's overall activity needs to pick up.
The Chinese counter-example
Forecasts for the French car market do not point to a recovery in sales. Europe is expected to suffer a 5 %against growth 3,5 % in China.
However, the Chinese market is reacting differently to the end of containment. The fact is, 72 % of people living in the regions most affected by Covid-19 want to buy a new vehicle. The differences in the trajectories of the French and Chinese markets can be explained by the fact that the French and Chinese markets are very different.changing buying habits at the end of the containment period. 42 % of Chinese now say they want to buy a car directly online, while 79 % of them admit that this was unthinkable before the pandemic.
They are also 4 % anticipate the fall in market prices for vehicles over the next few months and are 66 % to want to make their purchase plans a reality in the next six months.
The statistics from our study show low confidence in using public transport for 85.3 % of respondents. At the same time, in China, 50 % of public transport users would like to avoid using public transport.
In the end, these markets faced the same problems, so it's not impossible that we'll see a recovery in the Chinese car market, as in France. Dealerships will be aiming to sell off their stocks, and promotional offers are likely to be made. In two markets in particular:
- Electric vehicles : dealerships will need to replenish their accounts after two months at a standstill. Also, the entry into force at the end of the year of the CAFE amendment this year, are encouraging manufacturers to sell more electric vehicles. Failure to comply could result in heavy fines.
- Used vehicles: the delivery of new vehicles is undoubtedly always problematic.
Deconfinement promises to be the start of a potential rising purchasing power for future buyers of electric vehicles and on the second-hand market.
Short-term rental under threat
Short-term rental is essentially dependent on tourist activity, particularly at airports and railway stations. It is therefore a service that comes to a complete standstill during the lock-in period.
There are a number of indicators that will influence the market and its recovery, such as the trend in the number of deaths and admissions to intensive care units, which serve as indicators for :
- Beaches open for the summer
- The next reopening of borders within the EU
- The next reopening of non-EU borders
According to our study, 64.5% will use a car to get to their holiday destination this year. We can anticipate a slow and gradual recovery, in line with the pace of tourism.
Shared mobility amid uncertainty
Shared mobility is a way of getting around using a shared means of transport managed by a third party, usually a company. The most common are self-service means of transport, such as scooters, cars and scooters. But there are also those that use the collaborative economy, i.e. a peer-to-peer activity involving human interaction through car-sharing and car-pooling, for example.
According to our survey, 87.8% of respondents told us that they no longer wish to use shared mobility services in the coming weeks. 79.2% are not confidentand will not be using them for the next few months.
The company Fluctuo, Fluctuo, a company specialising in data measurement for mobility, answered some of our questions about the future of shared mobility. According to Julien, Fluctuo's CEO, over the next few months, shared mobility could be a possible solution for people who don't own bikes, scooters or cars.
However, their use can be problematic, because as the name suggests, this is 'shared' mobility, involving one or more other people on the same journey, and therefore more risk of contamination. It is also less cost-effective than public transport.
"The Covid 19 crisis will have a lasting impact on travel patterns in all the world's major conurbations [...] There is a risk of an explosion in the number of private vehicles (particularly cars), with all the consequences that this would have on urban congestion and air pollution. Most cities are in the process of taking drastic measures to encourage other modes of transport".
This risk is statistically plausible, given that 63% of the people questioned told us that they would soon be using their car, rather than other modes of transport, for greater safety and less risk of contamination.
How will shared mobility evolve over the coming months?
There are many questions about the role that shared mobility could play in the coming months. There will inevitably be a shift in public transport users who will not want to lock themselves into a metro or tramway train (for a while). If these people don't own a bike/scooter/car themselves, shared mobility could be the solution. But there will also be reluctance to use these services, precisely because they are shared vehicles (with all that that implies in terms of fears of contamination). But also because of the cost of using these services (which are more expensive than public transport). Finally, on the supply side, the crisis has had a severe impact on companies in the sector. There will be a number of bankruptcies or withdrawals from certain cities.
Given the data from the deconfined countries, what type of transport will be preferred?
The Covid 19 crisis will have a lasting impact on travel patterns in all the world's major conurbations, by making individual modes of transport more attractive at the expense of public transport. The risk is that we will see an explosion in the number of private vehicles (particularly cars), with all the consequences that this would have on urban congestion and atmospheric pollution. Most cities are in the process of taking drastic measures to encourage other modes of transport.
Will the coronavirus have a lasting impact on shared mobility?
For shared scooter services, which have attracted a great deal of attention over the last 2 years, this crisis will be an opportunity to come of age. Given the absence of tourists (for several months), who accounted for a significant proportion of revenue, the continued development of these services will inevitably require the development of regular use among the residents of the towns and cities concerned. This implies new strategies for the deployment of vehicle fleets and the introduction of pricing plans adapted to regular use. For shared bicycle, scooter and car services (already well used by local customers), the change will be less sudden.
A loss of confidence in car sharing
Alternative mobility refers to the transfer of carbon-based road traffic to more environmentally-friendly solutions. These include walking, cycling, car-sharing and car-pooling.
Some activities in the alternative mobility sector have been hard hit by the crisis, which has resulted in a virtual halt to activity, and even the withdrawal of certain services.
The car-sharing application BlaBlacar has seen its business fall by an estimated 95%. General Motors' offer for car sharing "Maven to be phased out by June. The company has announced the transfer of resources to other activities. Lime, a company offering self-service electric scooters, has announced the closure of its business and the transfer of its resources to other activities. the provision of scooters for nursing staff.
Within the panel surveyed :
- 75.3% are confident in the use of bicycles
- 23% will use alternative modes of transport to get to work
- 13.5% of local residents who live close to their place of work will walk to work
Finally, we are seeing a change in the habits of the French, following the period of confinement. Alternative forms of mobility such as car pooling and car sharing are less popular with the public, because of the proximity of strangers. Cycling and walking are more popular and considered safer.
In conclusion
In our study, we interviewed a panel of people to establish the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on mobility. The lockdown lasted eight weeks, during which time the entire economy was paralysed and many sectors came to a complete standstill. One of the sectors most affected was mobility.
People's habits have changed, and the priority now is health safety and journey times, ahead of ecology and price.
The preferred means of transport are those that can be used individually, i.e. cars, motorised two-wheelers, bicycles or scooters. This explains why respondents have little or no confidence in using public transport. In contrast, the car is the most reassuring means of transport.
In the course of May, we can anticipate a pollution peak over the coming weeks, given the common desire to use cars.
In June, conditions permitting, full resumption of restaurant, theatre, museum and cinema activities. If the pandemic is brought under control, public transport and vehicle traffic should return to normal.
At the end of the year, we could be anticipating a possible upturn in the electric and used car market. Dealers are aiming to sell off existing stocks, and the CAFE 2020 regulations are pushing them to do so, on pain of fines.
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